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There are also risks that tensions remain high in Eastern Ukraine, a highly-industrialized region. The scale of the impact will depend on the duration and intensity of the unrest and is difficult to quantify at this point. The conflict could weaken budget revenue, as well as significantly damage prospects for investment. As a result, the budget deficit could widen above the program ceilings, necessitating corrective measures or offsetting increases in donor financing. Moreover, this would likely lead to significant deterioration in the trade balance, given the outsized role of the eastern regions of Ukraine in the production of machinery and equipment.