SEA, 04.04.2004 17:40:45 :
Инкогнито
Судя по вашим невнятным ответам, сказать вам нечего.
Я привел вам цифры и графики и фрагменты от солидных мировых агенств, в ответ - нечто бездоказательно-невнятное...
Нет у вас аргументов? И не может быть, потому что Вы не правы.
Ну попробуйте хоть что-то доказать аргументированно!
Единственное что "похоже на правду" - что 1%ый рост потребления Китаем мог вызвать значительно больший рост цен.
Но! Такой неадекватный рост сопровождался бы не
стабильным ростом цен а
кратковременным. Фактически, месяцы на реакцию инвестиционных и нефтедобывающих кругов, как это не раз уже бывало.
По поводу вашего
центра защиты - дескать, попробуйте докажите что нестабильность в регионе вызывает рост цен. Надеетесь что это невозможно? Или оппонент начнет мудрить, залезет в дебри, где возможно придраться по мелочам, заявив при этом, что убедительно доказали свое?
Тут действительно не надо мудрить. Я буквально недавно видел в Forbes этакий график цен нефти за последние 50 лет, с разъяснением всех его скачков. К сожалению пока не нашел это в интернете. Так вот там видно, что влияют войны, революции и крупные возмущения в этом регионе, и события конкретно в Ираке (график был вроде до 2002 года, но больше и не надо). И никакие события западного мира не проявились там, потому что для нефти смена власти или выборы президента Америки, или курса в Китае - сущая мелочь (речь о глобальном тренде!).
Итак, если Вы до сих по ничего не доказали - Вам сказать нечего. Неаргументированные заявления рассматриваются как треп а посему факт признания Вашей неправоты.
SEA, говорите ерунду. За пару минут, я нашёл полно материала из вполне респектабельных источников (например Financial Times) для вас достаточно респектабельна?), которые полностью противоречат вам. Например:
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// news.ft.com
"Energy's supply-demand situation calls into question the perception that oil prices are going to return to the mid-$20 range.
Crude oil supplies are hovering at their lowest levels since 1975. Meanwhile, supply growth from states that are not part of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries is tapering off, giving Opec much greater pricing power. Demand in the US remains strong while China and other developing countries are rapidly increasing their consumption. China would probably account for a third of the increase in next year's demand, Mr Ober says.
Given this scenario, "crude oil prices are headed higher", says Rob Morrow, chief investment officer at San Francisco hedge fund Clarium Capital Management. "Oil has pricing power and there's chronic undersupply - it's as simple as that." Mr Morrow's firm projects that crude oil prices will hit $50 to $60 a barrel by the end of the decade.
While that forecast is at the higher end, oil prices have remained above $30 a barrel since before the war in Iraq, and the Department of Energy projects average oil prices of $30 a barrel for 2004. Energy investors say the gap between the belief in a $18-$25 oil price and the reality of a $30 oil price will close - spelling big gains for energy stocks."
Или вот еще:
Выдержка:
ьLeading to that judgment are three fundamental findings study author Michael R. Smith of EnergyFiles Ltd. said were "strongly evident" from the study: increasing oil demand coupled with falling reserves and a decline in discovery.
Declining reserves
The unprecedented rate of global oil reserves drawdown will be a major factor, Smith said. Although 99 countries have or can produce significant volumes of oil, 52, including the US, are already well past their peak (greater than 5 years), while another 16, including the UK, Norway, Australia, and China are at peak or will reach it soon, the analyst said. The remainder will peak within the next 25 years, he added.
The report, Douglas-Westwood said, "further adds to the debate begun by Shell's downgrading of oil reserves," which was followed by a number of other oil companies' doing the same (For an analysis of Shell's reserves picture, see OGJ, Apr. 5, 2004, p. 43).
"Perhaps all of Shell's 'lost' reserves may eventually be converted back to proven, but the problems of Shell and other oil companies do raise questions as to the present day economic value of global reserves and the validity and soundness of processes to estimate them," Smith said. "Cuts in oil companies' proven reserves may indicate new shortages in underreported volumes that were once used to counterbalance overreported volumes," Smith said.
Iraq and OPEC
Smith forecast a short period of oversupply by the former Soviet Union and from deep waters, but said that to offset declines elsewhere, large capital investments would be required within OPEC countries after 2008 to rapidly increase production by at least 1-2 million b/d annually. "It is likely that by then the world will begin to see sustained growth in oil prices," he reported.
"OPEC cohesion continues, and it is assumed that Iraqi will continue to be a member of OPEC and that its output ultimately will combine with theirs.
"Iraq is probably the most underexplored country in the world in relation to its productive potential. Once stability is achieved, a field development program must begin with very large infrastructure projects and huge investments, said Smith. "However, whether companies will be willing to take on the political and geological risk, remains to be seen."
Iraq is likely to achieve 2.5-3 million b/d of oil by the end of 2005, and maintain a level near this within OPEC for 3-4 years, before ramping up output, he said.
"Within 5 years the share of production that OPEC provides can increase once again without reducing the price."
Rising demand
However, "by 2008 all OPEC countries will need to begin to increase production as much as they can to meet even modest demand growth," the analyst said. As reserves dwindle, oil demand continues to soar.
Global demand in 2003, led by China, grew by 2.6%, the analyst said. China's surge in oil-fired power generation capacity and a 75% jump in sales of passenger vehicles resulted in its 10% demand increase. Although unsustainable, China's demand growth is nonetheless expected to remain the highest in the world, Smith said.
"When you consider that the number of cars on British roads increased from around 2 million in 1950 to 25 million now, and revenue-passenger kilometers on the world's air transport has tripled from 1 trillion to 3 trillion since 1978, it stands to reason that economic growth in China will have a dramatic effect on automobile and airline oil usage," he said. "
Или еще:
Palm Springs news, community, entertainment, yellow pages and classifieds. Serving the Coachella Valley, California.
// www.thedesertsun.com
"Also, the demand for gas continues to rise, while supply dwindles with the closing of refineries.
"They’re not building inventory like they usually do this year in preparation for the summer travel season. That’s what we think pushed wholesale prices up yesterday and today," said AAA spokesman Jeffrey Spring."
Короче, таких много, не буду дальше цитировать (хотя мог бы) и НИГДЕ не вижу, что бы ПСИХОЛОГИЧЕСКИЙ эффект от войны в Ираке кем то принимался во внимание. Везьде обсуждаются классические факторы спроса и предложения. Иными словами, стандартные ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ факторы, а не "нестабильность в регионе."